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Next week’s European Central Bank meeting is crucial as President Christine Lagarde aims to signal the end of restrictive monetary policy and prioritize recession avoidance. A 25 basis point cut is anticipated, reflecting the ECB's cautious approach amid the euro's fragile state, just above parity with the dollar.
Americans traveling to Europe in 2025 may benefit from favorable euro-U.S. dollar exchange rates, as the euro is expected to weaken further, potentially reaching parity with the dollar. Economic policies under President-elect Trump, including tariffs, could bolster the dollar while impacting European exports and interest rates. This shift may enhance American tourists' purchasing power significantly, making travel more affordable.
Inflation in the U.S. accelerated in October, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious stance on interest-rate cuts. Meanwhile, inflation in the euro area also increased, although core price growth remained stable, leading European Central Bank officials to indicate a fourth rate reduction at their upcoming policy meeting.
The European Central Bank will not intervene in government-bond-market fluctuations caused by political risks, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel. He emphasized that the focus of the Governing Council's actions remains strictly on monetary policy, despite rising French borrowing costs linked to budget uncertainties.
Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, has advocated for continued interest rate cuts as euro-area inflation is projected to hit 2% in the first half of 2025. He noted that inflation is slowing and moving towards the ECB's target, suggesting a favorable environment for further rate reductions.
EU inflation has risen to 2.3% in November, prompting speculation about the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision on December 12. Despite this increase, investors remain optimistic about easing monetary policy, while the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points before Christmas.
IG
The European Central Bank has announced modifications to the Eurosystem collateral framework aimed at enhancing harmonization across the euro area. These changes seek to unify the previously separate frameworks established after the 2008 financial crisis, ensuring a consistent list of collateral for all counterparties, regardless of their location.
Euro zone inflation rose to 2.3% in November, surpassing the European Central Bank's 2% target, as reported by Eurostat. This marks an increase from 2% in October, driven by persistent services inflation, while core inflation remained steady at 2.7%. Markets anticipate a 25-basis-point interest rate cut from the ECB in December, although speculation for a larger cut has diminished amid slight improvements in growth and inflation.
Euro-area inflation rose to 2.3% in November, surpassing the European Central Bank's 2% target, but this is not expected to halt planned interest rate cuts. Despite a slight dip, service costs remain high, and non-energy industrial goods prices have increased for the second consecutive month.
Consumer inflation expectations in the euro area rose to 2.5% for the next 12 months in October, up from 2.4% in September, according to the European Central Bank. The three-year inflation gauge remained steady at 2.1%, slightly above the ECB's target, reinforcing calls for a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments.

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